竹本郎
资深会员
帖子:739
声望: 20

回应: 远离银行股

#444 发表於 2011-07-04 18:23
我所說的短線操作並非短炒,我從來不鼓勵任何人炒賣。人生很多有意義的事等告著我們去做,學習、運動、工作、倍家人、搞自己的興趣等等。一天只有24小時,我早上6:30起床,到晚上12時上床,總是充實非常,所以我從不看金融即市情況。

我主張長線投資,所以我九成半的投資在債券、物業和實物上。股票份額不多,但也是有個數目,所以也不容忽視。本來也是作長期的,但去年開始再評估大勢,認為不可長線持有銀行股,免至投資跑輸通脹。

短線操作不是短炒,要先選可長線持有並有派息的優質股,以保力加通道定下買入和賣出價位。按紀律執行操作,可以在有操訊號時才看即時市況。我一般兩三個月才操作一次,花不了一句鐘。不會浪費時間和影響正事。但當然平時也有做投資功課和分析,但也是從興趣出發。

另有關基金問題,請看新發表的文章 ﹣男人靠不著。

dada
新手会员
帖子:9
声望: 0

回应: 远离银行股

#447 发表於 2011-07-05 11:25
買匯豐每季等派息,作長線投資,可行嗎?

竹本郎
资深会员
帖子:739
声望: 20

回应: 勿与銀行股結婚

#450 发表於 2011-07-05 18:25
我不會教朋友如何操作,每个人的背景和期望不同,很難說怎樣做。我持有很多匯豐,買了3年,但正準備在高位減持。但我有其他選擇,所以是有策略地改變組合。

若收4%息回報你是滿意的話,可行。但你會跑輸通脹。若你現水平買入,三四个月內$90賣出,你回報15%,相等於4年股息。

夠了,我不可以教你操作,有风險的。

我說了大勢,你自已想想吧。

勿与銀行股結婚,但你可以与銀行股拍拖。

Babypink
新手会员
帖子:2
声望: 0

回应: 勿与银行股結婚

#451 发表於 2011-07-05 19:21
I agree with your point that there must be changes to the international banking system before one feels safe to buy bank shares.

However I do not think using Greece is a good example to support your argument. You are speaking 'after the fact' i.e. after it has become public knowledge that Greece is in crisis - so of course the holding of Greece government bonds by banks puts many bank shareholders wordwide at risk. Since there will be a loss of confidence in the banks and trigger a similar situation to what we saw during the global financial crisis.

But Greece's debt crisis has nothing to do with the international financial system unlike Lehman Brothers (which was linked to sub-prime mortgages). Greece's demise is a result of irresponsible public spending by the government and inability to generate revenue due to severe tax evasion.

I could hold Greece's government bonds directly and be at the same risk at bank shareholders right at this moment.

許斌
新手会员
帖子:6
声望: 1

回应: 勿与銀行股結婚

#461 发表於 2011-07-06 18:21
竹老師好厲害,你的文章出來不到一星期,淡馬錫便宣佈跟中行和建行离婚。减持200亿元的股票。

請問他們為何在市弱的情況下作减持行動?為何如此蝕底?是否不看好后市?

竹本郎
资深会员
帖子:739
声望: 20

回应: 勿与银行股結婚

#465 发表於 2011-07-07 11:12
Hi BabyPink,

It is true that I was speaking after the fact that it has become public knowledge that Greece is in crisis. Anyway, if no one knew what was happening, there would be no loss of confidence at all.

To understand the impact of Greece’s trouble, we have to reveal the root cause. I agree with you that Greece's crisis is a result of irresponsible public spending by the government. However, it is not the root cause.

The situation is due to a spiral of problems as there were some sources of funding which supported the government to continue its spending without control. These sources of funding were financial institutes. For political reasons and commercial benefits, banks have never been scrutinized in a proper way. As a result, they would be able to offer unlimited money to the government. However, even they realized that the government would have difficulties to repay the loans, all parties in the financial system did not have the intention or ability to stop the spiral of problems but they collaborated to find ways to delays the crisis. In the other word, governments and financial institutes are helping each others to create the bubble.

When they realized that “paper would never be able to wrap fire”, they started to panic. The Tower of Babel that is Eurozone governance is collapsing. Markets have gone from puzzled to incredulous and onto panic as all leaders in the Eurozone spoke in different tones. Their failure to sing from the same hymn sheet is actually very damaging.

You must understand that the investors of government bonds are normally financial institutes not individuals. These financial institutes are now highly connected together to help maximizing their profit potentials. Therefore, they are interconnected together to push themselves into a devastated situation.
最后修改: 2011-07-07 11:13 由 竹本郎.
页面处理时间: 0.63 秒